Hasashen manoman Rasha na shekarar 2019 ya tabarbare. A cewar manazarta, kashi 30 cikin XNUMX na kamfanoni ne kawai ke ganin kyakkyawan ci gaban masana'antar noma a cikin shekara mai zuwa - wannan ita ce mafi ƙarancin alama a cikin shekaru huɗu da suka gabata.
Kasa da kashi uku na kamfanoni suna da kyakkyawan fata game da ci gaban masana'antar noma a Rasha a cikin shekara mai zuwa. Wannan shi ne ƙarshen da manazarta na kamfanin Deloitte masu ba da shawara suka cimma a cikin binciken "Binciken Kasuwancin Noma", wanda aka shirya a watan Disamba 2018 (a zubar da RBC, an gudanar da binciken a cikin kwata na hudu).
Deloitte ta kasance tana gudanar da irin wannan binciken tun a shekarar 2015 bisa wani bincike na kamfanonin da ke aiki a rukunin masana'antun noma. Dangane da sakamakon amsoshin masu amsa, manazarta sun tantance ma'auni na ma'auni, wanda ya bambanta daga -1 zuwa 1, inda ɗayan shine mafi kyawun sakamakon kima. Menene dalilin raguwar kyakkyawan fata a tsakanin manoman Rasha kuma menene halin da ake ciki a yanzu a cikin rukunin masana'antun noma, RBK ya bayyana.
Masu kyakkyawan fata ba su da yawa
Yawan kamfanonin da ke da kyakkyawan fata game da hasashen ci gaban masana'antar noma a cikin shekara mai zuwa ya ragu. A cewar Deloitte, a cikin shekarar da ta gabata ma'aunin kima na hasashen hasashen ci gaban masana'antun noma ya ragu da maki 7, zuwa 0,10 daga 0,17.
"A karon farko a cikin dukan tarihin abubuwan lura, yawan kamfanonin da ke da fata game da al'amuran ci gaban masana'antu na masana'antu a Rasha na shekara mai zuwa ya ragu zuwa 30%," Dmitry Kasatkin, shugaban ayyukan bincike na bincike. reshen Deloitte, ya bayyana wa RBC. A cikin shekarun da suka gabata, akwai ƙarin waɗanda ke da kyakkyawan fata: a cikin 2017 (na tsammanin 2018) - 45% na duk kamfanoni, kuma a cikin 2016 (na 2017) - 40%. Yawancin masu amsawa ba sa tsammanin wani canje-canje: rabon su ya karu da 16 pp idan aka kwatanta da bara, zuwa 57%.
Babban kalubalen da masana'antar ke fuskanta shine tsadar albarkatun makamashi, rashin isasshen tallafi da kudade na gwamnati, da karancin kwararrun ma'aikata, a cewar wani bincike na Deloitte a shekarar 2018.
Me yasa masu aikin gona suka fada cikin damuwa
Manazarta a Deloitte sun bayyana ra'ayoyin ra'ayi na 2019 tare da "babban tushe": a cikin 2018, adadin yawan kamfanonin da ke tantance halin da ake ciki a aikin noma na Rasha da kyau (watau sama da matsakaici) an rubuta su, in ji Kasatkin. A karshen wannan shekara, adadin su zai karu da kashi 7 cikin dari. kuma zai zama kashi 85% na duk masu amsawa. Don kwatanta: a cikin 2015, jihar na Rasha agro-masana'antu hadaddun an tabbatar da gaskiya da kawai 61% na masu amsa. Dangane da lissafin Deloitte, babban masana'anta dangane da ci gaban riba a cikin 2018 zai zama noman alade, inda riba za ta haɓaka da 2017% idan aka kwatanta da 79. Ana kuma sa ran samun bunkasuwa a cikin samar da amfanin gona. A cikin masana'antar kiwon kaji, riba za ta kasance a matakin yanzu, ana tsammanin raguwa daga masu samar da madara.
Rushewar kyakkyawan fata a tsakanin manoman Rasha "ya yi kama da gaskiya," in ji manazarta Gazprombank Daria Snitko. A ra'ayinta, abubuwan da ake tsammanin masu shiga kasuwa suna tasiri da abubuwa biyu. Na farko, har yanzu masana'antar ba ta da cikakkiyar masaniya game da yadda sabon shirin tallafi na jihar zai kasance ga rukunin masana'antu na gona-masana'antu, wanda shine babban yanayin haɓaka masana'antar da haɓaka saka hannun jari. Musamman mahalarta kasuwar ba su fahimci abin da zai faru da tallafin da ke ƙarƙashin shirin jihar don kashe kuɗi don gina gine-ginen greenhouse ba. Abu na biyu shi ne rashin tsammanin kasuwa dangane da bukatar mabukaci.
Rashin tsammanin da kamfanonin noma ke yi na da nasaba ne da yanayin tattalin arziki, ba wai halin da masana'antu ke ciki ba, in ji Vitaly Sheremet, shugaban cibiyar kwararru a rukunin masana'antu na KPMG a Rasha. "Tattalin arzikin kasa gaba daya ba shi da kuzari da kudi mai kyau, kuma wannan yana sanya matsin lamba kan manoma," in ji shi. A cikin 'yan shekarun nan, martabar manomi ya karu, in ji Sheremet: yanzu sun haɗa da ba kawai waɗanda ke aiki kai tsaye a filin ba, har ma da "dukkan jerin masu samar da abinci daga gonaki zuwa kantuna." Halin da ake ciki yana da kyau ga masana'antun da suka ƙare: musamman, confectioners suna shirye don ninka samarwa ta 2024, in ji shi. Ga manoman gargajiya-masu noman shuka, wannan shekarar ta fuskar tattalin arziki ma fiye da na baya, in ji Sheremet. A shekarar 2018, girbin hatsin ya kai tan miliyan 110, wanda bai kai adadin da aka samu a bara na tan miliyan 135,4. A sakamakon haka, farashin hatsi ya karu: bisa ga albarkatun bincike na ProZerno, ya zuwa ranar 14 ga Disamba, farashin alkama na aji uku. 60% fiye da na Disamba 2017 (13,2 dubu da 8,3 dubu rubles da tan). Halin da ake ciki tare da goyon bayan jiha, lokacin da jihar ba ta cika nauyin da ya rataya a wuyanta ba, zai iya haifar da mummunan fata ga masu noma, Sheremet ta yarda.
Menene laifin tallafin da jihar ke baiwa manoma
Taimakon jihohi yana daya daga cikin manyan abubuwa guda uku a cikin gwagwarmayar aikin noma na Rasha a kasuwannin duniya, mahalarta a cikin binciken Deloitte sun lura. A cikin 2018, manoma sun fi gamsuwa da samun tallafi fiye da shekara guda da ta wuce. A cewar Deloitte, a cikin 2018 wannan alamar ta girma da 48% kuma ta kai 0,24 (kuma tare da matsakaicin ƙimar 1).
Domin 2019 mai zuwa, Ma'aikatar Aikin Noma ta sanar da adadin tallafin da jihar ke buƙata ga manoma a matakin 302 biliyan rubles. Yanzu a Rasha akwai wani shiri na ci gaban masana'antu agro-masana'antu har 2020. A watan Yuni ne mataimakin firaministan kasar Aleksey Gordeev, wanda ke kula da harkokin noma ya sanar da bukatar "sake duba tsarin shirin jihar don bunkasa aikin gona". A cikin sabon shirin na jihar, musamman, ana shirin canza hanyoyin da za a bi don samar da tallafi guda ɗaya da tallafi don rama wani ɓangare na farashin kai tsaye, in ji Mataimakin Ministan Noma Elena Fastova. Canje-canjen ya kamata a yi niyya da farko don haɓaka fitar da kayayyakin amfanin gona zuwa ketare. A matsayin wani ɓangare na dokar Mayu na Shugaba Vladimir Putin, ta 2024 ya kamata Rasha ta ƙara fitar da kayayyakin amfanin gona zuwa dala biliyan 45.
Fadada fitar da kayayyakin amfanin gona zuwa kasashen waje a shekarar 2018-2024, bisa kididdigar Deloitte, zai ba da karin karuwar GDP na RUB tiriliyan 7,1. Jimlar ƙarin tarin haraji da aka samu daga haɓakar samarwa da fitar da kayayyakin amfanin gona zai wuce tiriliyan 1 rubles. Matsakaicin ci gaban GDP na shekara-shekara sakamakon karuwar fitar da kayayyaki zuwa kasashen waje zai kai kashi 2024% nan da shekarar 0,3.
Me zai faru da noman duniya
A cikin shekaru goma masu zuwa, aikin noma na duniya zai bunkasa sannu a hankali, bisa ga bayanan binciken da kungiyar hadin kan tattalin arziki da raya kasa (OECD) ta yi. Matsakaicin girma na shekara-shekara zai zama 1,5%. Za a maida hankali ne kan fadada ayyukan noma a kasashe masu tasowa, inda ake sa ran samun bunkasuwa mafi sauri a yankin kudu da hamadar Sahara da kuma kudu maso gabashin Asiya. A kudu maso gabashin Asiya ne (ciki har da China, Indiya, Japan da Koriya) kusan kashi 40% na hatsin duniya (ciki har da kusan kashi 90% na shinkafa), kusan kashi 40% na nama, fiye da rabin adadin man kayan lambu da kusan 70. Ana samar da % na kifi....
A yankin Gabashin Turai da Tsakiyar Asiya, wanda ya hada da Rasha, samar da kayayyakin noma da kifi zai bunkasa da kashi 14%. Yankin zai karfafa matsayinsa na matsayi na biyu a fannin noman alkama kuma zai kawo kasonsa na noman alkama zuwa kusan kashi 2027% nan da shekarar 22. Samar da masara zai girma da kashi 17%, sunflower da rapeseed - da 25%.
Bukatar kayayyakin noma a duniya kuma za ta bunkasa sannu a hankali cikin shekaru goma masu zuwa, in ji manazarta a Deloitte. Wannan ya faru ne saboda gaskiyar cewa matakan amfani a ƙasashe da yawa sun kusan kai matakin jikewa. Fiye da rabin amfanin noma yana zuwa daga abinci guda biyar: shinkafa, masara, alkama, madara da kayan kiwo, da waken soya. Bukatar masara, fiye da rabin abin da ke fitowa daga abincin dabbobi da albarkatun halittu, za su yi girma a matsakaicin 2% a kowace shekara. Amfani da sabbin kayan kiwo da aka sarrafa a duniya zai karu da kashi 2,2% da 1,7% a duk shekara cikin shekaru goma masu zuwa, bi da bi.
Mawallafi: Elena Sukhorukova.
Kara karantawa akan RBC: https://www.rbc.ru/