Kwararru na Cibiyar Nazarin Ƙwararrun Ƙwararrun Agribusiness "AB-Center" sun shirya na gaba marketing bincike pOssieYisky dankalin turawa kasuwa. A ƙasa akwai wasu sassan binciken.
Kasuwar dankalin turawa ta Rasha a cikin halin yanzu da kuma lokacin hasashen yana da:
- Rage girman wuraren noman dankalin turawa a cikin 2020 da 2021. A shekarar 2019, yankin ya kasance hekta dubu 305,3; a shekarar 2020, ya ragu zuwa kadada dubu 282,7. A cikin 2021, ana sa ran cewa, a cikin yanayin farashin dankalin turawa, yankin zai fadada kadan idan aka kwatanta da 2020. A gaskiya ma, sun fi yawa saboda ƙarshen farkon bazara, sun ragu kuma sun kai kadada dubu 274,0. Wannan shi ne adadi mafi ƙanƙanta tun 2008.
- Rage yawan girbin dankalin turawa a cikin 2020 da 2021. A shekarar 2019, girbin dankalin turawa ya kai tan dubu 7, a shekarar 564,9 ya ragu zuwa tan dubu 2020, a shekarar 6, bisa kididdigar AB-Center, ya kai tan dubu 811,1. Rage yawan girbi a cikin 2021 ya faru ba kawai saboda raguwar yanki ba, har ma saboda raguwar yawan amfanin ƙasa. A cewar mahalarta kasuwar, ingancin girbin da kansa ma ya dan tabarbare.
- Dangantakar ƙarancin matakin yanki na samarwa. Ana noman dankalin ne bisa tsarin masana'antu a kusan dukkan yankunan kasar. Yankunan TOP-5 (2020) suna lissafin 37,3% na duk kudade, yankuna TOP-10 - 51,9%, TOP-20 - 68,7%. Daga cikin manyan yankuna masu girma sun hada da Bryansk, Tula, Nizhny Novgorod, Moscow, Sverdlovsk, da Tyumen. Yankunan Astrakhan da Rostov, yankunan Krasnodar da Stavropol, da Jamhuriyar Kabardino-Balkarian sune jagororin samar da dankalin farko a kasuwa.
A cikin yankuna 20 na Tarayyar Rasha, adadin girbin dankalin da aka shuka a masana'antu ya wuce ton dubu 100, a cikin yankuna 21 alkaluman sun kai ton dubu 50 zuwa 99, a cikin yankuna 22 - daga ton dubu 10 zuwa 49. A wasu yankuna masu girma (yankuna 17), samarwa yana kan matakan da bai wuce tan dubu 10 ba.
A yankuna 30 na kasar Rasha, noman dankalin da ake nomawa a masana'antu ya zarce adadin amfani da shekara-shekara, yankuna 52 suna samar da dankali a cikin kundin da ya yi kasa da matakin amfani da yankin.
- Maido da shigo da dankalin turawa zuwa Rasha. A cikin 2020, shigo da dankali zuwa cikin Tarayyar Rasha ya karu da 2019% idan aka kwatanta da 10,4 - zuwa ton dubu 392,7. A cikin Janairu-Agusta 2021, idan aka kwatanta da daidai wannan lokacin na 2020, isar da kayayyaki ya ninka fiye da ninki biyu kuma ya kai tan dubu 2.
Ana sa ran nan da karshen shekarar 2021, shigo da kayayyaki za su wuce tan dubu 600. A cikin 2022, kayayyaki na iya wuce ƙimar da aka lura a cikin 2017-2018. (780-845 dubu ton) da kuma kusanci da dabi'u na 1 ton miliyan.
Masar, Belarus, Azerbaijan, Pakistan, Iran da China ne ke samar da kayan shigo da kayayyaki daga kasashen waje. Dankali kuma yana zuwa Tarayyar Rasha a cikin adadi mai yawa daga Jojiya, Isra'ila, Turkiyya da Sabiya.
- Girma a fitar da dankalin turawa daga Rasha a cikin 2019-2020. A cikin 2019, isarwa, idan aka kwatanta da 2018, ya karu da 96,2% zuwa ton dubu 292,6. A cikin 2020, idan aka kwatanta da 2019, sun karu da wani 21,6% kuma sun kai tan dubu 355,9. An danganta haɓakar fitar da dankalin turawa da ƙarancin farashi na lokacin da ake bita.
Ana ba da dankalin Rasha ga ƙasashe kamar Ukraine, Azerbaijan, Uzbekistan, Moldova, da Turkmenistan. Azerbaijan duka mai sayarwa ce kuma mai siyan dankali. Daga wannan ƙasa, galibi ana shigo da dankalin farko zuwa Rasha (daga Afrilu zuwa Yuli), kuma daga Rasha, ana ba da dankali kai tsaye girbe a cikin babban kakar, wato, a cikin Agusta-Oktoba (ana yin isarwa daga Agusta zuwa Afrilu). Azerbaijan.
- Rage yawan fitar da dankalin turawa daga Rasha a cikin 2021. Ganin yadda aka samu raguwar noma, da kuma tsadar dankalin Rasha, a wannan kakar an samu raguwar fitar da kayayyaki zuwa kasashen waje. Dangane da sakamakon Janairu-Agusta 2021, fitar da dankalin turawa daga Tarayyar Rasha, idan aka kwatanta da daidai wannan lokacin a cikin 2020, ya ragu da 73,9% zuwa ton dubu 63,1.
- Bayyana yanayin lokacin shigo da dankalin turawa da fitarwa. Babban adadin shigo da dankalin dankali a cikin Tarayyar Rasha a cikin 2018-2019. ya fada tsakanin Maris da Yuni.
Yanayin lokacin shigo da kayayyaki ya fi yawa saboda karuwar kayayyaki daga manyan ƙasashe masu samar da kayayyaki. Har ila yau, a wannan lokacin, samar da dankalin da ake samarwa a gida yakan ragu. Yawan fitar da dankalin turawa daga Rasha ya fadi ne a lokacin daga Satumba zuwa Disamba.
- Farashin dankalin turawa da ba a taba ganin irinsa ba. Bari mu tuna cewa an lura da ƙarfafa farashin dankalin turawa a cikin kakar da ta gabata - 2020/2021 (Yuni 2020 - Mayu 2021). Hakan ya faru ne saboda raguwar tarin tarin a shekarar 2020. A cikin kakar 2021/2022, cikin yanayin faɗuwar faɗuwar dankalin turawa, farashin ya ci gaba da hauhawa.
Yawanci, lokacin tallace-tallace yana farawa da farashi mai yawa na al'ada don farkon dankali a watan Yuni da Yuli. Bugu da ari, a watan Agusta da Satumba ana lura da raunin su mai mahimmanci. A cikin yanayi na yanzu, akasin haka, farashin a watan Agusta-Oktoba ya ƙarfafa sosai. A duk tsawon lokacin da aka yi la'akari da shi a cikin binciken, irin wannan yanayin, tare da farashi a watan Agusta-Oktoba ya wuce matakin farashin a watan Yuli, ba a taɓa gani ba.
A ƙarshen Oktoba da Nuwamba, farashin siyarwar dankali ya ɗan daidaita ƙasa, wanda ya kasance saboda ƙarshen ajiyar dankalin turawa. Gabaɗaya, a cikin lokacin lokacin vector zai matsa zuwa haɓakarsu. Akwai babban yuwuwar cewa a ƙarshen Maris 2022, farashin siyarwar dankali a Rasha zai wuce 32,0 rubles / kg. Koyaya, yana da yuwuwar jin daɗin faɗuwar tarin tarin zai wuce kuma farashin zai kasance a matakan Oktoba har zuwa Afrilu. Yawancin zai dogara ne akan ayyukan shigo da dankalin turawa - yadda karfin ikon Masar, Pakistan, Iran da China zai kai ga fadada shigo da kayayyaki.
- Ana tsammanin faɗaɗa girman yanki da haɓaka a cikin babban rashi a cikin 2022. Idan aka yi la’akari da tsadar farashin da ake samu a daminar bana, akwai yuwuwar fadada yankin noman dankalin turawa a shekarar 2022 zuwa hekta dubu 310,0. Koyaya, da yawa zasu dogara ne akan abubuwan halitta da yanayin yanayi yayin yaƙin shuka.
Idan aka yi la’akari da karuwar da ake sa ran a yankin, da kuma la’akari da cewa amfanin dankalin turawa a shekarar 2022 zai kasance a matsakaicin matakin shekara-shekara a cikin shekaru 5 da suka gabata, girbin zai iya kai tan dubu 7.
A wannan yanayin, noman dankalin turawa a Rasha a cikin 2022 zai ɗan wuce buƙatun kasuwa, wanda hakan na iya haifar da raguwar farashi mai mahimmanci a lokacin 2022/2023.
Ana iya samun cikakken rubutun binciken a mahada.