Lokacin 2019/2020 zai shiga cikin tarihin noman cikin gida azaman girbi mai karimci, amma mai tsaurin kai (dangane da masu kera noma) - a cikin farashi. Kabeji, karas, albasa, gwoza - duk waɗannan albarkatun a ƙarshen hunturu sun zama gwaraza na ƙimar Rosstat da aka keɓe ga kayayyakin da suka faɗi cikin farashi kamar yadda ya yiwu a cikin shekarar da ta gabata. Bari mu bayyana nan take: sukari ne kawai ya sami damar cin su a cikin wannan jerin bakin ciki.
Amma ba a haɗa dankalin a cikin ƙimar ba - kawai saboda farashinsu ya kasance ƙasa da shekaru da yawa.
SAURARA
A cewar Ma'aikatar Aikin Gona ta Tarayyar Rasha, babban girbin dankali a cikin masana'antun masana'antu ya kai kimanin tan miliyan 7,5, wanda shine kashi 5,5% fiye da na shekarar 2018 (tan miliyan 7,1) da kashi 9,5% sama da matsakaicin matakin shekara-shekara na shekaru biyar da suka gabata (6,9) Tan miliyan 255,6). Yanayin yanayi mai kyau a lokacin girma ya shafi yawan amfanin ƙasa (ya ƙaru zuwa 234,8 c / ha akan 2018 c / ha a cikin 2019), kuma dumi da bushewar kaka kusan kusan ko'ina ne (ban da wasu yankuna na Arewa Maso Yamma da Ural , Gundumomin Gabas ta Tsakiya) an ba da izinin tattara samfuran zuwa matsakaicin. Sabili da haka, an sami rikodin har ma da ƙananan ragi a cikin wuraren namo (a cikin 302,3, dankali ya mamaye kusan 2018 dubu ha, a cikin 304,8, an shuka amfanin gona a kan yanki na XNUMX dubu ha). Kamar yadda aka zata, wannan nasarar ba ta kawo farin ciki ga masu noma ba.
Yawan kayayyaki a kasuwa ya haifar da karuwar matsalolin tallace-tallace da hauhawar farashi, wanda, da alama, ba su da inda za su fadi na dogon lokaci. A tsakiyar tsakiyar hunturu, an sayar da dankali a cikin manyan wuraren samarwa a cikin 5-7 rubles / kg (wholesale), ya danganta da ingancin batir. A zahiri, masana'antun sun sayar da samfura a farashi, wani lokacin ma har ƙasa da shi. A watan Fabrairu, farashin samfurin ya tashi zuwa 8-9 rubles / kg, kuma ga mutane da yawa wannan sakamakon ya kasance ba a tsammani ba.
Shekarar sake, bayan wannan rikodin na 2015, ya tabbatar da cewa Rasha ba ta buƙatar dankalin turawa tebur a cikin irin wannan adadi. Matakan sarrafa abubuwa - har ma da la'akari da yadda aka kirkiro wasu kamfanoni a Lipetsk, Tyumen da sauran yankuna - sun girma ba tare da wata matsala ba sama da shekaru hudu (a kan wannan yanayin, labarin yadda EcoFrio ke fatarar kuɗi a cikin yankin Bryansk yana da bakin ciki musamman).
Kodayake fitarwa ya karu, ba yanke shawara ga kasuwa. Masana'antu suna cikin matsala.
Abin sha'awa shine, manoman dankalin turawa a cikin Ukraine, inda ake fama da karancin dankali a kasuwa, kuma farashin kayayyaki yana ta bugawa duk bayanan tun watan Agusta, suma suna ganin kakar 2019/20 bata yi nasara ba. Manoma sun bayyana manyan dalilai biyu na matsalolin. Na farko shine kuskuren zaɓin tallan tallace-tallace. Yawancin manoman dankalin turawa sun yanke shawarar riƙe girbi har zuwa lokacin hunturu, suna fatan cewa a wannan lokacin samfurin zai tashi cikin farashi zuwa matsakaicin matakin.
Wanene zai iya tunanin cewa za'a kai wannan matakin a zahiri a tsakiyar girbi? Tuni a watan Agusta, tekun samfura daga “makwabta” suka mamaye ƙasar, kuma tare da shi jita-jita game da rashi mai zuwa ya shigo, yana samar da buƙatu mai ɗorewa.
Farashin farashi ya tashi matuka, amma wannan bai hana masu siye ba. Kowa ya sani cewa ƙarshen bazara da farkon kaka sune lokacin dankali mafi arha, kuma kowa yana tsoron cewa zai fi hakan ma.
Amma hauka da ake tsammanin sun ƙare: mazauna sun tanadi makomar, buƙatu ta faɗi, farashin ya faɗi. Yanzu gonakin suna da zaɓi: don siyar ko jira don yawan jama'a zai ƙare. Haka kuma, a zahiri babu lokacin jira, kuma kwararar dankali da ba ta asalin Ukraine ba ta bushe, tunda farashi mai yawa (a cewar Disamba 2019) yanzu ya ninka na Rasha. A lokaci guda (a nan shi ne, matsala ta biyu!), Ga wani muhimmin ɓangare na masu samar da dankali shine kawai fata don inganta yanayin kuɗin su: da yawa kuma sun tsunduma cikin namo karas, beets, kabeji, albasa, da farashin kayan lambu na ƙasa a cikin wannan shekara ya kasance a rikodin low.
VEGETABLES
Koyaya, halin da ake ciki a kasuwar Rasha yai kyau sosai. Yawan girbin kayan lambu a cikin ƙasa na masana'antar kayan lambu wanda ke girma a cikin 2019 ya kai tan 5 tan. Wannan shine 468,3% (tan dubu 9,3) fiye da na 463,5. Girma, kamar yadda yake a cikin dankalin turawa, an samu shi ta hanyar ƙara yawan amfanin ƙasa.
Akwai wasu lambobin kuma. Dangane da sakamakon kwata na ƙarshe na 2019, karas ya faɗi a farashin da 29,3%, kabeji - da 18,2%, albasa - da 27,4%, gwoza - da 19,6%. La'akari da farashin kayan lambu da dankalin turawa da ke cikin kwandon abinci mafi karanci, Rasha ta gabatar da shawarar rage farashin rayuwa na zangon IV na shekarar 2019 zuwa 10 rubles.
Shekara guda kafin, yanayin ya kasance daban.
Kabeji
A watan Maris na 2019, Rosstat ya sanya farin kabeji a matsayin jagora a hauhawar farashin abinci tsakanin kayayyaki. Farashin kabeji sannan ya karu da 41,5% kowace wata, kuma idan kun ƙidaya daga ƙarshen 2018 - nan da nan da kashi 68,3%. A watan Afrilu, bisa ga ƙungiyar Rusprodsoyuz, an sayar da jigilar kabeji a kan farashin kusan kilo 45-55 a kowace kilogram (a cikin Disamba 2018, matsakaicin farashin bai wuce 22 rubles / kg ba). Babu ɗayan sauran abubuwan haɗin na “borsch set” da zai iya cimma irin wannan sakamakon.
Dalilin ci gaba da hauhawar farashi ya kasance mai wuyar fahimta: a shekarar 2017, akwai kayayyaki masu yawa a kasuwa, kuma a shekara mai zuwa, manoma sun rage wuraren da suke noma, wanda hakan ya shafi sanya tarin kayan ajiya.
A cikin 2018, an girbe tan miliyan 872,6 na kabeji a Rasha a cikin masana'antar masana'antu na kayan lambu, wanda shine 11,4% (ton miliyan 112,8) kasa da shekarar 2017.
A cikin 2019, girbin farin kabeji a cikin ƙasar gabaɗaya, bisa ga ƙididdiga, bai wuce nasarorin da aka samu a shekarar 2018 ba: an samu kusan tan dubu 800. Koyaya, yawancin masu noman aikin gona sun lura cewa yawan amfanin kabeji ya girma sosai a wannan lokacin, kuma an girbe abubuwa da yawa fiye da yadda aka tsara. Tuni zuwa Oktoba, kabeji ya zama jagora a cikin darajar faduwar farashi. A watan Disamba, farin kabeji ya kasance mai rahusa 20% fiye da na Disamba 2018, zuwa Janairun 2020 ya ninka sau 1,6 fiye da na daidai wannan lokacin na 2019. A farkon watan Fabrairu, farashi ya sake yin ƙasa (tallace-tallace a cikin yankuna sun kasance daga kewayon daga 6 zuwa 14 rubles / kg), saboda yawancin masana'antun sun fara ɓoye wuraren ajiya, suna tsoron ƙimar samfurin ba zai ƙyale hakan ya kasance ba kiyayewa har zuwa bazara.
Karas
Dangane da Ma'aikatar Kididdiga na Tarayyar Tarayya, wuraren da aka shuka karas a cikin masana'antu a cikin 2018 sun kasance a matakin 23,2 dubu ha (i, in aka kwatanta da shekarar da ta gabata, sun ragu da kashi 7,4% (da 1,9 dubu ha). Girbin girbin amfanin ya kai tan 810,2 dubu, wanda shine 4,0% (ton dubu 33,4) ƙasa da shekarar 2017. Af, an yi rikodin raguwar samarwa a karo na farko bayan shekaru biyar na ci gaba mai zuwa.
A lokaci guda, farashin karas bai bugi rikodin ba, amma ya kasance a matakin ƙima, musamman idan muka ƙididdige daga farkon 2019, lokacin da yawancin masu kera sun ƙare daga hannun jari na ingantaccen samfurin: ya zuwa tsakiyar Janairu, an sayar da karas a 13-20 rubles / kg ( wanda ya zama 47% mafi girma a kan matsakaici fiye da ƙarshen Janairu 2018), a cikin Maris farashin matsakaici ya karu da wani 22%.
Babban adadin samfuran shigo da kaya (da farko daga Belarus), wanda aka sayar da kusan farashin daidai da na gida, ya hana ƙarin godiya.
A shekarar 2019, yawan amfanin gonar karas ya karu - bisa ga bayanan hukuma, da kimanin kashi 1%. Farashi ya fadi. A ƙarshen Janairu 2020, an sayar da karas a matsakaita a 8-14 rubles / kg, a cikin kwanaki goma na farkon Fabrairu - a 6-12 rubles / kg, ya dogara da ƙimar rukuni.
Beetroot
A cikin kasuwar gwoza a cikin 2018, masana sun lura da karuwar yawan amfanin gona - ta kashi 11% (har zuwa tan dubu 427). An gano wannan sakamakon a matsayin mafi girma tun daga farkon 90s. Shekarar da ta gabata, an tara tan dubu 384, kuma a cikin 2016 - tan dubu 404. A lokaci guda, farashin samfura suna tallafawa jigilar kayan lambu gaba ɗaya.
Dangane da Cibiyar ta AB, an sayar da ganyen gwoza a ƙarshen Janairun 2019, a kan matsakaici, akan farashin 10,5 rubles / kg (ban da VAT), i.e. 19,3% fiye da na daidai lokacin guda a shekara a baya. A watan Afrilun 2019, farashin ya kasance a matakin 10-17 rubles / kg.
A cikin 2019, ƙarar kudan zuma tana karuwa da kashi 2,5% (idan aka kwatanta da 2018), kuma farashin ya faɗi a zahiri: ya zuwa 24 ga Janairu, 2020, bisa ga sahihancin farashin daga Cibiyar Nazari ta Expertwararru don Agribusiness, kuri'a na gwoza tana sayarwa a kan matsakaita akan 8,8 rubles ./kg (ban da VAT), i.e. 16,5% mai rahusa fiye da na lokaci na 2019.
Albasa
Girkin albasa a cikin shekarar 2018 ya kai tan miliyan 1,034, kuma wannan sakamakon ya ragu da kashi 11% fiye da sakamakon shekarar 2017. A kan wannan tushen, samfurin ya kasance wuri na biyu a tsakanin al'adun zaɓi na borscht a cikin farashin farashin: bisa ga Serviceididdigar Ma'aikatar Kididdiga ta Tarayya, daga farkon shekarar 2019, albasa ta tashi cikin farashin da kashi 71,5%.
Ana iya gano kashewar farashin dalla-dalla: zuwa 15 ga Fabrairu, 2019, an siyar da kaya a farashin 14,5-15 rubles / kg (a watan Fabrairu 2018 - daga 9 rubles / kg), zuwa 22 ga Fabrairu - a cikin yanayi na ragi a hannun jari ta ɗakunan ajiya - tuni daga 19-20 rubles / kg, daga Afrilu 19 - daga 21-22 rubles / kg (a watan Afrilu 2018 - daga 10 rubles / kg), zuwa Afrilu 26 - daga 2526 rubles / kg ( a farkon Mayu 2018 - daga 8 rubles / kg).
Albasa ta fara faduwa a cikin farashi kawai daga farkon watan Yulin, amma a wannan lokacin sun ci gaba da samun tazara mai kyau tare da farashin kakar da ta gabata: a watan Yuli, a tsakiyar yankunan Rasha, an siyar da albasa a farashin 18-25 rubles / kg, kuma a farkon watan Agusta - a 15-22 rubles / kg.
A cikin wadataccen 2019, yana yiwuwa a tara tan miliyan 1,09 (5% fiye da na 2018) na albasa. Farashi bai kasance ba tare da bayanan ba: a ƙarshen Disamba 2019 kuma a farkon Janairu 2020, albasa mai yawa ta sayar da 10-17 rubles / kg. A karshen watan Janairu, farashin, a cewar masu sharhi a shirin East-fruit.com, ya tashi da kashi 8%, kuma a wannan lokacin tayin da aka yi akan kasuwa ya karu sosai, wanda kuma ya sake dawo da farashin zuwa yadda suke a baya.
GASKIYA
Tabbas farkon lokaci ne don kammala lokacin 2019/20 a watan Fabrairu. A gaba shine janyewa daga kasuwar babban adadin kayayyaki masu ƙarancin ƙarfi, mai yuwuwa - ƙaruwar buƙatun kayayyaki masu inganci, buɗe wuraren ajiyar manyan masana'antun da ke ƙididdigar farashin da ya fi dacewa, kuma, ba shakka, kwararar na shigo da kaya.
Duk da gagarumin ci gaba da aka samu a cikin ajiya a cikin yearsan shekarun nan, adadin siye don kowane amfanin gona yana da mahimmanci. Don haka, a cewar Hukumar Kwastam ta Tarayya, a cikin kakar 2018/2019. Rasha ta shigo da kaya daga kasashen waje tan dubu 113 na kabeji, tan dubu 187 na karas, sama da tan dubu 200 na albasa. Manyan masu fitar da su sune Masar, Azerbaijan, Isra'ila, China. Kodayake tabbas ba za a sami ƙaruwar kayayyaki daga China a wannan bazarar ba.
Har yanzu akwai wasu mahimman watanni masu zuwa, waɗanda mutane da yawa ke da babban bege, watakila ya barata. Ka tuna, alal misali, farashin dankali na bara kawai ya tashi zuwa farkon kwanakin Mayu (kuri'a aka sayar a matakin 13-14 rubles / kg) kuma ya kasance a matakin ƙima har lokacin da dankali ya fara zuwa daga yankuna na Kudancin Rasha, yana bawa masu samar da kayan aikin noma su kasance da.
Amma ƙarshen wannan lokacin tallace-tallace na iya zama daban. Kazalika da kammala na gaba, kafin farawa wanda babu kadan lokacin da ya rage.
Zamu iya ɗauka cewa, wataƙila, akasin asalin halin da ake ciki yanzu, a wannan shekara yankin da al'adar borscht saita ba za ta karu ba. Kuma wannan yana nufin cewa yayin haɗari na bala'i a lokacin kaka ko lokacin girbi a kaka, karancin kayan lambu da dankali da hauhawar farashin ba su cirewa, amma wannan hasashen bai kusan daidai da yanayin yanayi na bazara mai zuwa ba.
Ba shi yiwuwa a yi hasashen inda farashin farashi zai tashi a cikin kasuwar da ba ta da tsari. Labarin tashin farashin a tsakiyar girbi a cikin Ukraine shine mafi kyawun tabbaci akan wannan. Inshora kawai game da sauyin farashin farashi ga masana'antar noma shine gabatar da tsarin tsare-tsarenta, wanda ke nuna cikakkiyar fahimtar inda, a wane juzu'i da wane farashin za'a siyar da girbin. Ana iya samun nasarar wannan ta hanyar ƙirƙira da kuma kula da kewayen kwastomomi na yau da kullun ko ta haɓaka samfura don takamaiman tsari, a ƙarƙashin yarjejeniya tare da shuke-shuke sarrafawa ko sarƙoƙin sayarwa. A yau gonaki da yawa suna da dama don wannan.