Saukad da girbi da kashi 11%, raguwar fitar da hatsi da hatsi daga kashi 13%, durkushewar masana'antar berry da kashi 50%. Waɗannan su ne sakamakon da 2020 ta kawo wa manoman Yukren. Koyaya, babban kasuwancin bashi da damuwa musamman game da wannan, tunda yana da damar samun kuɗi mai arha da kuma damar zuwa kasuwannin ƙasashen waje. Manoma, a gefe guda, suna kirga asara kuma suna tunanin yadda zasu tsira da 2021. Haka kuma, jihar a zahiri ba ta taimaka masu.
Ungiyar masana'antar masana'antu da masana'antu ta tsayayya da rikicin, amma ta kasa. Tun daga Maris, yawan noman kayan gona a cikin Ukraine yana ta faduwa. A cewar Hukumar Kididdiga ta Jiha, a cikin Janairu-Agusta 2020, yawan kayan aikin noma idan aka kwatanta da daidai lokacin a shekarar 2019 ya kai kashi 90,2%. Wato, raguwar kusan 10%. A cikin shekarar da ta gabata, duk kumburin ya fado kan manoma lokaci daya: annoba, keɓewa, raguwar buƙatun wasu rukunin samfura, bala'in yanayi.
A sakamakon haka, ribar da furodusoshi ke samu tana faduwa kuma suna neman ceto a kasuwannin kasashen waje. Tsadar farashin abinci a duniya na iya inganta yanayin. Misali, farashin farashin Hukumar Abinci da Aikin Noma ta Majalisar Dinkin Duniya (FAO), wanda ke nuna canjin kudin kayan masarufi, ya kai maki 97,9 a watan Satumba. Wannan ya fi kashi 2,1% bisa na watan Agusta kuma 5% ya fi na Satumba na 2019.
Nasara a baya ne
Komai nawa za mu so, amma a cikin 2020 ba za a sami girbi na rikodin na gaba ba. Duk laifin yanayin ne, wanda ya kasance akan manoma duk shekara. Babu hazo da dumi da damuna, bazara da zazzabi saukad da, fari a ƙarshen bazara da farkon kaka ƙwarai shafi amfanin ƙasa. Saboda haka, babban girbin babban hatsi da tsire-tsire zai kasance a matakin tan miliyan 87,5. Wannan sanarwar ta sanar "Dengam" da. game da. Babban Daraktan Graungiyar Hatsiyya ta Yukren (UGA) Serhiy Ivashchenko. Idan aka kwatanta da 2019, wannan ya kusan kusan tan miliyan 11, ko kashi 11%, ƙasa.
Haka kuma, masana suna sake nazarin kimar yawan amfanin kasa zuwa kusan dukkan amfanin gona. "Dole ne mu kara hasashen girbin alkama da tan miliyan 1,6 - zuwa tan miliyan 25,2, sha'ir - da tan miliyan 0,9, zuwa tan miliyan 7,8, da masara - da tan miliyan 2,2. ., har zuwa tan miliyan 29,6. Mun sake yin kwaskwarima game da girbin sunflower daga tan miliyan 14,3 zuwa tan 13,3, da waken soya - daga tan miliyan 3,1 zuwa miliyan 3, ”in ji Maria Kolesnik, Mataimakin Daraktan ProAgro Group.
Wadannan ƙididdigar suna dacewa da gaskiya. Dangane da bayanan da Ma’aikatar Raya Tattalin Arziki ta fitar a ranar 2 ga Nuwamba, alkama da sha’ir sun riga sun gama girbewa. Girbin ya kai tan 25,1 da tan miliyan 7,8, bi da bi (duba tebur). Masarar Agrarian ta girbe tan miliyan 17,6 daga kashi 66% na yankin da aka shuka. Girbin sunflower ya riga ya gama layin: an kwashe kashi 95% na yankin kuma an girbe tan miliyan 12,1. Kuma da wuya masu noman su sami damar noman girbin sunflower daga sauran kasashen zuwa na bara, wanda ya kai tan miliyan 14,5.
Sakamakon faduwar kayan samarwa, fitar da hatsi da hatsi zai ragu. Dangane da ƙididdigar UZA, a cikin 2020 zai kai kusan tan miliyan 54, wanda yake 13%, ko tan miliyan 8, ƙasa da na 2019.
Masu sharhi na ProAgro sun yi amannar cewa a cikin shekarar kasuwanci ta 2020/2121, Ukraine za ta iya samar da tan miliyan 48 na hatsi zuwa kasuwannin waje a kan tan miliyan 55,6 a cikin 2019/2020. Daga cikin wannan adadin, tan miliyan 17,5 - alkama, tan miliyan 4,4 - sha'ir, tan miliyan 25,5 - masara.
Neman 2021
Amma shuka noman hunturu na tafiya daidai. A cewar Ma’aikatar Tattalin Arziki da Ciniki, a ranar 2 ga Nuwamba, manoma sun shuka manyan albarkatun hunturu a yanki mai girman hekta miliyan 7,5 (kashi 91% na hasashen). Alkama da aka shuka hekta miliyan 5,65 (kashi 92% na hasashen), sha'ir - hekta dubu 867 (kaso 92% na hasashen), hatsin rai - kadada dubu 119 (kaso 89% na hasashen), an yi fyade - hekta dubu 863 (85%) zuwa ga kintace).
A lokaci guda, masu noman noma suna da damar girbi mafi girma a cikin 2021. Da fari dai, a cewar ma'aikatar bunkasa tattalin arziki, yankin da aka shuka shi da amfanin gona na hunturu zai bunkasa hekta dubu 600 - zuwa kadada miliyan 8,2. Gaskiya ne, ba a ƙarƙashin dukkan al'adu ba. Idan yankin da ke karkashin alkama ya karu daga hekta miliyan 5,65 zuwa hekta miliyan 6,1, to a karkashin sha'ir zai ragu daga hekta miliyan 1,06 zuwa hekta miliyan 0,95, kuma a karke da karba - daga kadada miliyan 1,2. har zuwa hekta miliyan 1.
Abu na biyu, yanayin yana fifita shuka kuma yana da kyau don farkon noman hunturu. Zafin da ya daɗe yana ba da damar ci gaba da aikin filin har zuwa ƙarshen kaka, kuma ruwan sama a ƙarshen Oktoba ya inganta danshi na ƙasa, wanda ke ba da bege ga ƙoshin lafiya da ƙarfi.
Berry tare da asarar
Manoma da gonaki waɗanda ke shuka 'ya'yan itace suna cikin mawuyacin hali. A gare su, 2020 yana ɗaya daga cikin mafi yawan shekarun rashin sa'a. Bugu da ƙari, saboda yanayin canjin yanayi, masu narkar da naman alawus sun sami noman riɓi ɗaya da rabi ƙasa da na 2019. “Mutane da yawa suna magana game da faduwar kashi 10-15%. Amma a zahiri, girbin ya fadi da kashi 40-60%. Asara mafi girma ita ce sanyin hunturu a lokacin bazara da ruwan sama a watan Yuni, ”in ji Yaroslav Movchun, mamallakin gidan gonar berry na Ozeryana. Af, ba a banza ba ne cewa berriesa berriesan itatuwa masu tsada ne a kiri duk lokacin bazara, manoma sun yi ƙoƙari su rufe asarar su.
Haka kuma, Ukraine har ma ta haɓaka shigo da berries da kwayoyi. Dangane da Fruungiyar itaitan itace da Kayan lambu na Yukren (UPOA), a cikin Janairu-Yuni 2020, shigo da kaya ya kai tan dubu 443, wanda ya ninka 11% fiye da a daidai wannan lokacin a cikin 2019. Shigo da 'ya'yan itatuwa na dutse (apricot, peach, ceri mai zaki, plum) ya karu da kashi 16,6%, yayin shigo da sabbin' ya'yan itace - da kashi 17,9%.
Tare da fruitsa latean itacen ƙarshen, babban abin shine apple, ba kowane abu mai kyau bane. Girbin zai yi daidai da na shekara ta 2019 - tsakanin tan miliyan 1. Kuma a bara ya kasance mafi munin ga Yabloko cikin shekaru 10. Bugu da kari, sanyi a bazara da fari a lokacin rani ya shafi ingancin ‘ya’yan itacen. Don haka, kyakkyawan apples apples masu kyau zasu kasance har zuwa 20% na yawan girbin.
Menene barazanar? Babban farashi a kan ɗakunan ajiya da yaɗuwar 'ya'yan itacen da aka shigo da su, waɗanda aka shigo da su galibi daga Poland.
Kayan lambu, nama, kwai
Girbin dankalin turawa a shekarar 2020 ba zai fi na shekarar 2019 kyau ba. A cewar Mataimakin Ministan Ci gaban Tattalin Arziki, Kasuwanci da Noma Taras Vysotsky, noman dankalin zai kai kimanin tan miliyan 20. A cewar Hukumar Kididdiga ta Jiha, a shekarar 2019, manoma sun girbe tan miliyan 20,2. Kuma shi ne girbi mafi muni tun shekara ta 2010. A sakamakon haka, kimanin tan dubu 400 na dankalin da aka shigo da shi ya isa Ukraine, kuma farashin sa ya yi tashin gwauron zabi a wasu lokuta.
A cikin Janairu-Agusta 2020, shigo da dankalin turawa ya ninka sau shida idan aka kwatanta da daidai wannan lokacin a shekarar 2019. Masu samar da maɓalli - Belarus, Netherlands, Russia. La'akari da cewa girbin bai sake zafi haka ba, tabbas baida daraja ga rage farashin dankali.
Vysotsky ya kuma ce girbin sauran kayan lambu a shekarar 2020 zai kai kimanin tan miliyan 9, wanda ke nufin raguwar kashi 2019-7% idan aka kwatanta da 8. Wannan ya riga ya bayyana a cikin farashi. A watan Oktoba, farashin tumatir, a cewar UPOA, ya kasance, a matsakaita, 23% ya fi na shekarar da ta gabata.
A cikin kiwon dabbobi, halin da ake ciki ya fi kyau, wani wuri ya fi muni fiye da shekara da ta gabata (duba tebur). Misali, a cikin watan Janairu zuwa Satumba noman naman alade da kafaɗun kafaɗa ya karu da 64%, yayin da gawawwakin naman alade ya ragu da 2,7%. Kirkin naman maroƙi da na naman shanu, rabin mushe, bariki ya faɗi da kusan 30%. Samar da kaza da naman kaza ya fadi da kashi 10%, yayin da naman turkey, akasin haka, ya karu da 12,3%. Yawan madara da kirim mai yawa ya ragu da 5-10%.
Noman ƙwai a farkon watanni tara na shekarar 2020 ya ragu da kashi 1,3% ko miliyan 173,2 - zuwa biliyan 12,8.
Agroexport bai iya tsayayya ba
A cewar Kungiyar Kwadago ta Yukren, a watan Janairu zuwa Ogastan 2020, fitar da kayayyakin amfanin gona a kan kowace shekara bisa tsarin kudi ya ragu da kashi 0,8% - zuwa dala biliyan 13,7. Ee, wannan ba mutuwa ba ne. Amma faɗin ƙasa cikin kayayyaki a bayyane yake. Musamman idan kayi la’akari da cewa a cikin 2019 fitar da kayayyakin amfanin gona ya karu da 2018% idan aka kwatanta da 19.
Raguwar mafi girma a fitarwa daga seedsa andan itace da plantsa fruitsan plantsa oilan tsire-tsire masu tsire-tsire, masana'antu da tsire-tsire masu magani, da fiye da 36%, ya rage samar da gari, malt, sitaci, kayan lambu da aka sarrafa da 19%, sukari, ƙwai da kayayyakin kiwo da 14%, da 9% - kayan lambu, 7,5% - nama da 1% - hatsi.
A lokaci guda, masana'antun sun haɓaka fitar da kayayyakin da aka gama daga hatsi, gari, sitaci, da madara da kashi 14%. Cinikin kayan lambu da mai na asalin dabbobi ya karu da kashi 20%.
Babban rashin dacewar fitowar agro-fitarwa ta Ukraine shine cewa tsarinta yawanci ya dogara da albarkatun ƙasa. Wato, yawanci hatsi ne, mai, 'ya'yan itatuwa da kayan marmari (sabo ne ko daskararre), nama. Akwai ƙarancin kayayyakin da aka gama, kayayyakin da aka sarrafa. Idan muka binciki tsarin TOP 15 da ake fitarwa zuwa noma, 37% shine hatsi, 23% shine mai mai kayan lambu da na dabbobi, 13% an gama kayayyakin abinci, 6% ragowar sarrafa abinci ne, 5% shine irin mai, 5% dabbobi. kuma 3% - nama da offal.
Saboda haka, masana'antun noma ba su samun kuɗi kaɗan, domin kuwa kai tsaye sun dogara da farashin abincin duniya. Amma idan kayan sun kunshi yawancin kayayyakin da aka ƙare tare da ƙarin darajar da aka ƙara, da rikicin ba zai shafi kuɗin shigar kasuwancin Ukraine da wahala ba.