Alexey Krasilnikov, Babban Daraktan kungiyar Dankali ta Rasha
Manyan hannun jari da ƙananan farashi. Bitar kasuwar dankali
Masu samar da aikin gona na Rasha ne suka girbe tan miliyan 6,7 na masana'antar a cikin masana'antu a cikin 2018. Amma kyakkyawan girbi baya bada garantin albashi mai tsoka, kuma lokacin da aka kare ya sake tabbatar da wannan ra'ayin.
Kasuwancin dankali na tebur a yankuna
A cewar Rosstat, har ya zuwa ranar 1 ga Janairu, 2019, girman hannun jari na dankalin tebur na manyan masana'antar noma ya dan kadan ya fi daidai da wannan ranar a bara. Kimanin tan dubu 1100 na kayayyakin suka kasance cikin ajiya, wanda shine kashi 115% idan aka kwatanta da daidai wannan lokacin a shekarar 2018. Abubuwan da suka fi girma ƙasƙanci ana lura da su a cikin manyan yankuna na masana'antu: a Bryansk (tan dubu 112, wanda yake sau uku fiye da na bara a daidai wannan ranar), Tyumen (tan dubu 112, wanda shine sau 1,5 mafi girma idan aka kwatanta shekarar da ta gabata), yankuna na Lipetsk (tan dubu 98). An yi wani karuwa mai yawa a cikin ajiyar dankalin turawa a yankin Kemerovo (tan dubu 65, wanda ya ninka sau bakwai fiye da bayanan bara). A cikin yankin Moscow, dankalin dankalin Turawa ma yana da yawa sosai, idan kun mayar da hankali kan alkalumma (tan dubu 96), amma wannan ya ragu 16% idan aka kwatanta da bara.
Farashin farashin
A watan Janairu, a Yankin Moscow, matsakaicin farashin farashin dankali abinci ya kasance a matakin 12 rubles / kg; a wasu yankuna (Bryansk, Samara, Tyumen), an sayar da dankali a 10 rubles / kg. A wurare da dama, muna kuma lura da ƙananan alamu, da farko, muna magana ne game da yankuna inda suka girbe ingantaccen kuma an adana manyan filayen dankali, waɗanda ke "murkushe" kasuwa.
Idan muka kimanta hoto gaba daya, za'a iya lura cewa dankali mai dankali a duk faɗin Rasha ya riƙe matsayin ɗaya daga cikin samfuran masu araha (farashi yakai 15-30% ƙasa da shekarar da ta gabata, gwargwadon yankin). Ana yin rikodin ƙananan rafuffuka a yankuna, amma har yanzu yanayin bai faranta mana rai ba
Abu ne mai wahala koyaushe don yin hasashen abubuwan da za su faru nan gaba, amma ana iya ɗauka da babban tabbacin cewa wannan shekarar farashin farashinmu a kasuwanninmu zai yi ƙasa da dogaro kan sayayya da dankalin da aka shigo da shi tun farko: muna sa ran samun adadin kayayyakin Masar (a bara jimlar) Yawan fitowar dankalin Turawa ya kai tan 755 dubu tan, kuma mafi yawa daga Rasha ta yarda dashi) zai je kasashen Turai da ke fama da fari a shekarar 2018 da fari.
A yau mun lura cewa a cikin Poland da Jamhuriyar Czech, dankalin turawa ya tashi a farashin da sau biyu ko sau uku, kuma akwai karancin kayayyaki. Kodayake, sarƙoƙin sayarwa na Rasha ba a shirye suke su watsar da dankalin turawa ba. Akwai bayanan aiki da cewa sayayyen dankali na farko da manyan masu aiki ke yi sun riga sun fara, kuma farashin shigarwa a halin yanzu yana da yawa: $ 400-480 a kowace tan. Ka tuna cewa a shekarar da ta gabata, a farkon kaka, an sayi dankalin waje a kan matsakaita a centi 60 a kowace kilogiram, amma daga baya, la'akari da yadda kasuwar ta yi sama da fadi, farashin ya sauka zuwa 30 - 35 cent. Ba a cire shi ba cewa irin wannan ci gaban da aka sani yana da alaƙa da ƙarin farashin dankali a kasuwar cikin gida ta Masar: masu samar da amfanin gona na cikin gida suna da masaniya cewa buƙatar kayayyakin da suke yi a wannan shekara ya fi girma, kuma suna ƙoƙari don samun fa'idodi masu yawa a halin da ake ciki yanzu. Kar mu rage raunin yanayin: kafofin watsa labarai sun ruwaito cewa an yi ruwan sama a watan Janairu a Misira kuma akwai kwanciyar hankali a koyaushe, wanda zai iya shafar girbin.
Shin mabukaci na Rasha yana shirye ya sayi ƙarin? Wataƙila kashi ɗaya na yawan jama'a yana iya kasancewa a'a, amma mafiya yawa a halin da ake ciki yanzu na tattalin arziƙi tabbas zai yi zaɓin don ƙarin gabatarwar dimokuraɗiyya. Ganin wannan, sarƙoƙin sayar da kayayyaki na iya sanya dankalin Masarawa a cikin kantuna tare da ƙaramin alamar-alama - ana lura da irin wannan yanayi a yau tare da kabeji na Rasha, farashin kayayyaki wanda ya haɓaka sau biyu zuwa sau uku a cikin watan da ya gabata, amma a cikin shagunan farashin karuwar ba haka abin lura ba ne. Amma bambancin farashi a kowane yanayi zai zama mai mahimmanci.
A gefe guda, a kan asalin samfurin mai tsada da aka shigo da shi, farashin gida na iya “kamawa”.
Ba shi da wahala a gano wasu dalilai waɗanda za su iya yin tasiri a halin da ake ciki nan gaba. Misali, masu hasashen yanayi suna yin alƙawarin tsananin sanyi na dogon lokaci a Yammacin Siberiya (inda, kamar yadda aka ambata a sama, an yi rikodin babban dankali akan ragowar). Sharparin raguwa a zazzabi na iya ƙara farashin ajiya da ɗaukar dankali. Akwai yuwuwar cewa a wasu gidaje ɓangare na samfurin zasu sha wahala daga sanyi kuma gaba ɗaya zasu bar kasuwa. Amma wannan shine ɗayan yanayin shimfidar wuri. Ta yaya komai zai kasance da gaskiya, zamu iya tantance kawai.
Dankali ta shigo da shi
A cewar FCS, yawan fitar da dankalin Turawa a cikin 2018 (a yanzu muna da bayanai kawai har zuwa Disamba 2018) ya ragu da kashi 28% idan aka kwatanta da bara kuma ya kai $ 13,9 miliyan tare da nauyin nauyin 132. Ainihin, raguwar ta kasance sakamakon raguwar kayan masarufi zuwa Azerbaijan. Ka tuna cewa a kakar wasan data gabata Rasha tayi matukar rage girman sayan dankali na farko na asalin Azerbaijani (kayan masarufi sun rufe shi), a sakamakon haka, masu samar da Azerbaijani sun sha asara kuma sun ki sayen dabbobin marigayi tebur da dankali iri. Wataƙila an tilasta wa wasun su yi amfani da wani ɓangare na girbin su azaman kayan shuka.
Yawan kwararar dankali zuwa Ukraine (DNI da LPR) ya rage kaɗan, ko da yake mafi kusantarwa, bayan karɓar bayanai don Disamba 2018, bambancin alamu na 2017 da 2018 zai kasance kaɗan.
Amma yana da muhimmanci a lura cewa sabbin hanyoyin isar da kayayyaki sun bude: mutane da yawa na tebur dankali daga Rasha an sayar wa Serbia da Iraki wannan faɗuwar.
A bara, an ba da adadin manyan dankali da aka yi da Rashawa zuwa Uzbekistan. Zai yi wahala a hango ko zai yuwu a iya kiyaye wannan hanyar ta masu noman gida a cikin sabuwar shekara. Wajibi ne a la’akari da cewa a cikin shekarar 2018 an sami amfanin gona mai yawa a Kyrgyzstan, masu samar da kayan amfanin gona na cikin mawuyacin hali kuma suna yin iya ƙoƙarinsu don sayar da kayayyakinn ga makusantansu. Ana warware matsalar samar da wadata a matakin gwamnati, kuma har yanzu ba a san sakamakon tattaunawar ba.
Hakan ma yana da wuya a wannan lokacin a yi magana game da hasashen kayayyakin Rashawa zuwa Tajikistan. Akwai mutanen da suke son siyan kayayyakinmu a kasar nan, amma wadannan kamfanonin sun gwammace su yi aiki a karkashin yarjejeniyar biyan bashin, kuma ya zuwa yanzu ba mu sami damar samun tallafin gwamnati dangane da garanti na kudi ga masu kera na cikin gida ba.
Aiki sosai cikin ci gaban fitarwa na masana'antar sarrafa dankalin turawa. Musamman ma, Belaya Dacha ta samar da kayayyaki na kayanta (faransan faranji) ga Israila, Saudi Arabiya, Maroko kuma bata da niyyar tsayawa a wurin.
Dankalin dankalin Turawa
Dangane da bayani a karshen watan Janairun 2019, ba a gama kammala binciken abubuwan iri na kayan da kasashen ketare ke fitarwa zuwa Rasha ba. Masu binciken na Rosselkhoznadzor suna ci gaba da binciken baturen na Jamusawa, Dutch da Finnish. A watan Fabrairu, samfurori don nazarin dankali iri a Faransa zai fara (aikace-aikacen farko don isar da Russia - tan 1000). Da alama, za a san sakamakon a tsakiyar watan Fabrairu. Amma a yau ana iya cewa tabbas wataƙila a cikin 2019 Rasha za ta rage yawan sayayya na dankalin Turawa da aka yi daga ƙasashen waje (a bara mun shigo da sama da tan dubu 12 na dankalin Turawa daga Yammacin Turai). Babban dalilin: fari, wanda ya haifar da raguwar yawan amfanin ƙasa a tsakanin manyan masu kera. Babu ƙarancin iri a kasuwa, umarni don hakan ya zo daga ko'ina cikin duniya, farashin yana tashi. Koyaya, ya kamata a lura cewa har zuwa yau, takaddun tsaba na Turai da aka samo don tsari a kan yankin ƙasarmu ta hanyar wakilan Rasha suna kwangilar kashi 80-90%, wanda ke nuna cikakken buƙatar waɗannan samfuran a kasuwarmu.
Tabbas, ragin kayan abinci na Turai na dankali iri ba zai haifar da karancin kayan shuka ba; akwai wadatattun abubuwan samarwa daga masu noman gida a kasuwar yau.
A ƙarshen Fabrairu, za a gudanar da taron shekara-shekara na FSBI "Hukumar Tarayya", wanda aka keɓe don la'akari da aikace-aikacen don haɗa sabbin nasarorin nasa cikin Rijistar Jiha. Zuwa yanzu ba mu da bayani game da yawan nau'in kiwo na gida da na waje za a bayar, amma muna fatan masu shayarwa za su faranta mana rai tare da yin alkawarin sabbin kayayyaki, gami da, mai yiwuwa, nau'ikan da aka kirkira a karkashin Tsarin Kimiyya da Fasaha na Tarayya don Ci gaban Noma na 2017- Shekarar 2025.
Sakewa
Ofaya daga cikin mahimman abubuwan da suka faru a masana'antar a cikin sabuwar shekara zai kasance shine ƙaddamar da masana'antar sarrafa dankalin turawa na KRiMM a Yankin Tyumen. Kamfanin zai sarrafa kimanin tan dubu 30 na dankali a shekara. Sanar da kayayyaki - dankalin da aka soya cikin kayan inshora (samfurin da aka gama ƙare da shi) da dankali da aka dafa (kayan da ake ci) - ana shirin farawa ta gaba hunturu.
Hakanan a matakin karshe na shirye-shiryen shiri ne na samar da soyayyen faranti a cikin gari. Thearfin masana'antar zai zama tan dubu 50 na albarkatun ƙasa a shekara.
Kuma, ba shakka, haɗin gwiwa na Belaya Dacha da Lamb Weston, wanda ke shirin isa cikakken ƙarfin aiki (sarrafa ton dankali dubu 200 a shekara), yana ci gaba a wannan shekara riga.
Sabuwar kakar
A sabuwar shekara, wataƙila ƙananan kamfanoni za su bar kasuwa, waɗanda suke da wahalar zama “riƙa zama” cikin yanayi na shekaru masu yawa (shekara ta huɗu a jere) na sifiri, kuma galibi mara kyau, riba. A lokaci guda, manyan masana'antu za su ci gaba da bunkasa dankali, musamman tunda an buɗe sabbin tashoshin tallace-tallace a gare su (sarrafa tsire-tsire a cikin yankuna na Lipetsk da Moscow). Ganin wannan gaskiyar, ba abin mamaki bane cewa sababbin manyan adadi sun bayyana a kasuwar dankalin turawa, misali, misali, Yakhroma aikin gona, wanda ya haɗa ƙasashen Mosagrofood-D LLC da Zelenaya Dolina LLC.
Ganin irin waɗannan yanayin, Potungiyar Dankali ba ta annabta rage raguwa a fannin noman dankalin masana'antu. Amma kuma munyi la'akari da cewa shi tsufa ne don yin magana game da mummunan farfado da masana'antar da kuma kyakkyawar makoma mai kyau na ci gaba.