Mutane da yawa suna kimanta yanayin kasuwa a matsayin mai kyau, duk da cutar ta coronavirus har ma da wani ɓangare na godiya gare shi.
Kamfanonin Potashen suna yin la'akari da karuwar bukatu a Asiya sakamakon rashin talauci a shekarar da ta gabata, yayin da masu samar da takin phosphate ke fatan samun karin farashi bayan cibiyar samar da kayayyaki a kasar Sin, lardin Hubei, ya zama babban abin da aka fi mayar da hankali kan annobar. Masana sun yarda cewa shekarar gaba daya ta yi alkawarin farfado da farashin, amma sun yi gargadin cewa da wuya karuwar ta yi yawa.
A cikin 2020, Uralkali yana sa ran sayar da takin ma'adinan potassium a duniya zai dawo zuwa matakin 2018 na ton miliyan 65-66 bayan raguwar bara zuwa tan miliyan 63-64, in ji kamfanin a cikin rahotonsa na shekara a karkashin IFRS. Kamfanin ya bayyana kyakkyawan hasashen ta hanyar dawo da ayyukan ciniki a kudu maso gabashin Asiya. A cikin kwata na huɗu na 2019, Uralkali, saboda yanayin kasuwa mai wahala, rage yawan samarwa (na shekara gaba ɗaya da 3,5%, zuwa ton miliyan 11,1). Wannan ya faru ne, a cikin wasu abubuwa, saboda rashin kwangilar cinikin ruwa na kasar Sin a cikin rabin na biyu na shekara, da rashin kulla yarjejeniya da masu sayan Indiya da kuma yadda ake amfani da sinadarin Potash a cikin manyan kasuwanni.
Kasuwar takin phosphate ta yi fama da shi a shekarar da ta gabata sakamakon raguwar farashin da ya haifar sakamakon rashin kyawun yanayi da kuma karuwar samar da kayayyaki. Phosagro ya lura cewa a bara farashin ya faɗi zuwa raguwar tarihi kuma ya kusanci farashin da yawa har ma da masu samar da haɗin gwiwa, waɗanda dole ne su dakatar da wasu abubuwan samarwa. Amma a wannan shekara kamfanin yana tsammanin raguwar kayayyaki daga masu fafatawa daga Maroko, Amurka da China, tare da haɓaka buƙatun yanayi a kasuwannin Yamma.
Don haka, a kasar Sin, cibiyar samar da takin phosphate ta kasance a lardin Hubei da ke fama da annobar cutar, kuma Phosagro na fatan raguwar kayayyakin da ake samu daga kasar da tan miliyan 1,5. Farashin a watan Janairu ya riga ya ƙaru da dala 20-50 a kowace ton, ya danganta da kasuwa.
Eurochem kuma yana tsammanin sakamako mai kyau daga yanayin coronavirus saboda hauhawar farashin takin phosphate. Sun bayyana cewa ana fitar da babban adadin potassium ba zuwa China (kasa da 2% na tsarin tallace-tallace), amma zuwa Arewacin Amurka da Latin Amurka (kimanin 70%). Kamfanin ya kiyasta karfinsa na potassium na 2020 a tan miliyan 2,3.
Elena Sakhnova daga VTB Capital ta yi imanin cewa bara ba ta da kyau ga masu samar da takin potash. Amma shekarar ta kasance bala'i ga takin phosphate, farashin ya fadi daga $400 zuwa $265 kan kowace tan. A shekarar 2020, tana sa ran samun murmurewa a kasuwar phosphorus, ganin cewa kusan kashi 30-40% na karfin kasar Sin an kebe shi saboda cutar sankarau, sakamakon haka, za a iya rage wadatar da tan miliyan biyu. Ƙarin ƙarfi daga OCP na Maroko da Maaden na Saudi Arabiya zai sanya matsin lamba kan farashin. Saboda haka, Elena Sakhnova ya yi imanin, farashin takin phosphate zai tashi zuwa $ 2 kowace ton.
A fannin takin potash, kwararren ya yi tsammanin samun matsala a halin da ake ciki sakamakon cutar korona, wanda kasar Sin ba ta kashe ajiyar da ake da ita (kimanin tan miliyan 2) don haka, ba ta fara yin shawarwari kan sabbin kayayyaki ba. “A bisa ga al’ada, Fabrairu-Maris shine lokacin mafi dacewa don tattaunawa, amma a bana an rasa shi saboda tsawaita hutun sabuwar shekara. Don haka farkon su na iya komawa tsakiyar shekara, ko kuma a bana ba za a yi tattaunawar ba kwata-kwata,” in ji masanin. Ta yarda cewa bukatar takin potash a shekarar 2020 zai karu da tan miliyan 1, wanda zai fi karfin karfin da aka ba da izini a Rasha (ton miliyan 1,1 na EuroChem) da Kanada (tan miliyan 0,2). A lokaci guda kuma, tushen kasuwar Kommersant yana da kyakkyawan ƙima game da abubuwan da ake sa ran za a iya samar da potassium daga Rasha zuwa China.
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